The staff at the Daily Gabe will be taking a much-needed break for the holidays next week, and then be on assignment at CES the week of January 2^nd.  So this will be the last post until January 9^th, 2017.  Since it’s the final post of the year, I wanted to deviate from my normal format and end 2016 with one stark warning and then one piece of inspiration.

RECOMMITTING TO TRUTH:  First the warning.  Our industry is entering a dangerous era where “post-truths” are becoming the norm.  I believe this is being caused by marco issues in our society which has made it acceptable for individuals to say anything (truthful or not) on social media, and have very few repercussions.  For the best example of this look no further than the use of Twitter during the Prez election.  Unfortunately for all of us, digital media is conforming to this new post-truth standard.  Gone is the expectation that you need to do it the right way up front or suffer the consequences.  Now it’s a question of what you can get away with, and if you get caught just ask for forgiveness.  I think the author of the following AdWeek article poignantly makes the case for a commitment to rebuilding trust as the most important thing we can all work towards in 2017.  Something to think about over the holidays . . . (link)

GETTING BETTER AT LIFE:  Now for something positive.  In addition to this blog I regularly post articles and images on LinkedIn.  Of all the posts I did in 2016 the following image got the biggest reaction, with over 15,000 views and counting.  I can take zero credit for the content itself – it comes from James Altucher, who’s an author, podcaster, and all-around futurist.  If you haven’t read him he’s worth getting to know at (http://www.jamesaltucher.com/).  Anyways, I’ve been staring at this list of 18 points for a while now, and have come up with the following realization.  Achieving all 18 things on this list isn’t the thing.  Instead just trying to do a few of these tips daily has a funny way of making you better at life.  By “better at life” I mean happier, more well-rounded, and more fulfilled.  And people who possess these attributes are generally more successful in their chosen fields, and are therefore more likely to become millionaires.  Hopefully tips on this list can help all of us get better at life in 2017.

Happy holidays everyone, and cheers to a fantastic 2017!

FB DELVES INTO LIVE AUDIO:  Facebook has quietly announced Live Audio functionality as a companion to its Live Video launch.  This development has definitely caught the attention of broadcasters, as noted in the following RAIN and Radio Ink articles.  The platform is literally what the name implies –  live audio (up to four continuous hours), and nothing pre-produced or archived for future listening.  So this won’t really rise to the level of a full streaming audio service.  But what Live Audio can do is provide a platform for live performances.  Think of listening to a live concert via FB instead of attending the show or streaming it.  Granted the technical challenges around sound quality and the “sitting by yourself listening to a concert” factor may never truly replace the live music experience.  But it’s still an interesting development to keep an eye on.  (link1)  (link2)

A VERY SMALL STEP FORWARD:  Yesterday Nielsen announced it would increase PPM sample size across its 48 electronically-measured markets by 10% in 2017.  Sample size (or lack thereof) has been a top complaint of broadcasters and agencies alike, so the announcement is seen as a positive step forward.  However, we’re talking a baby step here.  Even with the increased meters Nielsen’s only estimating to track 65,000 listeners per day.  The 12+ population of the top 48 DMAs is roughly 132M.  So sampling 65,000 of this group is only a .05% in-tab rate (that’s .0005 for you non-math majors!)  Then Nielsen will take this one-half-of-one-tenth-of-one-percent sample and project out listening over the entire population.  If that methodology was used by a digital publisher they’d get booed out of the industry.  But in radio-land it’s being cheered.  Is the broadcasters’ expectation of Nielsen really that low?!? (link)

2017 DIGITAL PREDICTIONS:  And finally, each year Edelman Digital releases its Marketing Predictions for the upcoming year.  This year’s list is fairly diverse, with an emphasis on chatbots, influencers, and attribution.  It’s also interesting to see their take of the role of new technologies like VR and industry disruptors like Blockchain.  For some context I’ve also included Edelman’s 2016 predictions below, which were pretty spot on.  Given their track record the 2017 predictions in the following link are worth paying attention to! (link)

Have a great Thursday guys!

eCOMMERCE INSIGHTS:  Throughout this holiday season I’ve been highlighting emerging eCommerce trends.  In an attempt to one up me 🙂 Forbes has summarized these into a single expanded article.  (Fair warning on the click baiting though, since you’ll need to scroll through 4 pages to see all 12 points.)  My takeaways from these stats are as follows; chat-botting and technology will start to displace in-store employees, mCommerce has hit critical mass, Amazon has trained us not to pay for shipping or even put up with slow shipping, and Retailers have a ways to go to make their In-App loyalty programs more rewarding.  Good stuff to be thinking about in the Retail category for 2017.  (link)

MO MEASUREMENT, MO PROBLEMS:  I know it seems like I’m beating a dead horse here, but we’re continuing to see miscalculations on Facebook’s ad performance metrics.  While this latest issue, regarding time spent on third parties’ Instant Articles, is relatively small compared to some of the other errors, it’s the first example of a miscalculation being flagged externally – this one was caught by Comscore.  While none of these miscalculations will materially impact FB’s bottom line, you have to wonder if the compounding effect will start to undermine marketers’ confidence in them.  This isn’t good for FB, and quite frankly doesn’t help our entire industry.  (link)

DEFYING THE SANDMAN:  Finally today, have you ever wondered what separates the early birds who seem to jump out of bed like their alarm is a starter’s pistol, from the night owls who have trouble getting going before the crack of noon?  It often comes down to a physiological phenomenon known as sleep inertia.  It’s what happens when you’re technically awake, but your brain isn’t fully functioning because it’s still trying to remain in sleep mode.  Sleep inertia can last for 15 minutes all the way up to four hours after you wake up, which isn’t exactly helpful for business professionals who need to be on their games first thing in the morning.  While sleep inertia can’t ever be completely eliminated, here are few articles with tips to help minimize the effects.  The best suggestion is getting a good night sleep (of course!), so that your brain is well rested when it’s time to wake up.  Another idea is to stick to a regular routine first thing in the morning, which helps train your brain to recognize when it’s time be awake for the day.  Is it just a coincidence that Ashton Kutcher and Selena Gomez both recommend stretching and drinking water when you wake up?  Maybe they’re on to something?!?  (link1)   (link2)

Have a great Wednesday guys!

THE DOJ COMES CALLING:  Oh boy . . . as if the controversy around agency fee transparency wasn’t challenging enough, now comes news that all four of the major holding companies have received subpoenas from the DOJ over potential bid rigging.  These allegations center around the practice of inflating production or post production work costs to create more revenue for the Holding Company.  In simplest terms think of the HC’s lead AOR winning a piece of business by offering a lower fee structure than the competition.  Then to make up the money on the back end the AOR sublets work to a production company which is owned by the same HC.  That production company then jacks the price up, usually through increased billable hours.  Since these costs are harder to quantify they’re easier to inflate.  Keep in mind these are just allegations, and nobody has been found guilty of bid rigging yet.  Regardless, it’s not exactly the dirty laundry these HCs want to have out on the line.  (link)

APPLE’S PODCAST PROWESS:  Yesterday Apple released some stats around their 2016 podcast footprint.  The 10B # they’re quoting is a combination of downloads and streams, as those are the two primary ways podcasts are distributed.  According to Podtrac, Apple’s 10B podcasts represented 65% of the total podcast listening worldwide in 2016.  For context I’m including two articles from RAIN.  The first is the story itself, and the second is a deeper analysis of the attempts to standardize podcast measurement across downloads and streams, and reconcile uniques by episode vs. total podcast series.  Given the momentum podcasting has picked up in 2016, we’re sure to see continued growth (and attention) on this topic in the years to come.  (link 1)  (link2)

RIP 2016:  Towards the end of every year you start to see the post mortem on people or things we’ve lost over the previous 12 months.  This year Digiday is jumping on the trend with a summary of the brands we lost this year.  Hard to believe Meerkat is already gone.  Seems like yesterday (at SxSW 2015) when they debuted.  I can vividly remember an over-served client suggesting Meerkat would be the “Facebook of live video”.  Just 20 months later FB actually has live video, and Meerkat is DOA.  The demise of others on the list, like Vine and even Sports Authority, have been well-documented throughout the year.  But it’s still remarkable to see these companies on a list together.  And I seriously have no idea how the “OG” made it on this list.  Did the Russians just hack Digiday?!?  (link)

AND ONE MORE THING . . .   Speaking of ditching things which were once hot, here’s an extra nugget for you today.  Remember about 4-5 years ago when the entire world was moving from URLs to QR Codes?  Well check out the image below – from a real (but anonymous) digital agency white board.  Pretty funny!

Have a great Tuesday guys!

TOP 2016 DIGITAL TRENDS . . . ACCORDING TO A BROADCASTER:  First up today is a summary of the top digital trends of 2016, as seen by Inside Radio.  The source here is important since IR is owned by iHeart.  So most of the points listed are pro-radio and pro-iHeart.  With that said, it’s still a decent look into broadcasters’ talking points on where the industry is today and where it’s headed in 2017.  I happen to agree with the emphasis on in-car digital audio, digital video’s growing prominence, and the need for cross-platform delivery and measurement.  Only question becomes which media companies can best deliver on these narratives moving forward.  (link)

VIEWABILITY VS. EFFICACY:  Today’s guest columnist on AdExchanger is Scott Knoll, the CEO of Integral Ad Science (IAS), which is one of the primary viewability tagging vendors in the digital industry.  Mr. Knoll poses an interesting challenge to the notion that viewability automatically equals efficacy.  Right now clients and agencies alike are demanding threshold or 100% viewability guarantees as table stakes for digital video campaigns.  The thinking is simple – if the ad is viewed it automatically must have worked.  But there are so many other factors which go into the equation including; creative, ad relevancy, targeting accuracy, cost efficiency, and correct back end attribution.  With all of these elements in mind it sort of feels like viewability is the starting line to an effective campaign, and not the end-all-be-all finish line it’s currently being treated as.  Interesting read!  (link)

WHAT 10,000 HOURS LOOKS LIKE:  In his book The Outliers, author Malcolm Gladwell puts forth the theory that if you want to be absolute best in the world in a given field it requires a minimum of 10,000 hours of practice, which usually needs to occur in your childhood to teen years.  To save you from reading the entire book I’ve attached a link which summarizes some of Gladwell’s best examples of this theory in real life.  From the Beatles, to Bill Gates, to Wayne Gretzky, those who practiced way beyond the limits of others become the best of all time.  With that theory in mind take a look at the second link.  It’s a YouTube clip of a :90 Michael Phelps TV creative which was just named AdWeek’s 2016 Ad of the Year.  It gives you a pretty good idea of what 10,000 of practicing anything looks and feels like.  Enjoy!  (link1)  (link 2 – YouTube)

Have a great Monday guys!

ATTRIBUTION REFRESHER:  One of the more common blog questions I get is around the topic of Attribution.  What are the different methods of attribution, how are they calculated, and what are the pros/cons?  To help with this I’ve dug up the attached Digiday article, as part of their “WTF” series.  To sum it up there are three basic ways marketers can assign attribution – Single Point, Multi-Point and Weighted.  Single Point is the industry norm but the most primitive – think of assigning 100% of attribution credit to the publisher whose ad was clicked on.  Multi-Point tries to refine this by evenly dividing attribution credit amongst all the media outlets in the consumers’ journey.  This is more accurate than Single Point, but still sort of ham-handed.  The most accurate, but least developed, crediting model is Weighted attribution.  This model requires a weighting formula, which still really isn’t an exact science.  As the article notes, there’s a growing body of research around Weighted attribution, which means this will become the industry norm in the next few years.  Good topic to be versed in!  (link)

A MESS IN TV LAND:  A big negative just popped up against Nielsen’s effort to rollout out its Total Content Ratings (TCR) platform.  As a reminder, the goal of TCR is to create an apples to apples measurement standard across all forms of video consumption, including set top, DVR, VOD, etc..  This is badly needed for the industry with traditional TV ratings starting to plummet as consumers migrate to digital platforms for their video content.  Nielsen has been testing the technology all year, and slated April’17 as the timetable for full rollout.  But it turns out at least one TV network doesn’t think TCR is ready for prime time.  In a leaked email NBC’s head of Ad Sales, Linda Yaccarino, said TCR’s methodologies are flawed and the release could actually do more harm than good to the industry.  Ouchy!  AdWeek has a full summary of the kerfuffle in the following link.  (link)

NET NEUTRALITY UNDER FIRE?:  Finally this week I’d like to touch on a topic which could mean nothing or everything to our industry.  The issue is around what will happen with Net Neutrality under the new Trump administration.  For those not in the know, Net Neutrality is the current FCC protocol which creates a level playing field for all data bandwidth in the US.  Meaning every bit of information coming through the internet is distributed at the same speed.  Without Net Neutrality publishers or carriers could create high speed lanes which would deliver content faster, thus slowing all the other data which is not prioritized.  Just think of the Line Hopper passes at amusement parks, and you’ll get the idea.  Depending on where you are in the digital ecosystem, Net Neutrality is either a great or horrible thing.  But there’s one thing everyone can agree on.  Net Neutrality is the baby of current FCC Chair Tom Wheeler, and he’ll be resigning right after the inauguration.  To date Trump has made one Twitter post against Net Neutrality (presumably because it limits competition), but there’s been no formal position statement from the new administration.  More to come on this one, I’m sure.  (link)

Have a great Friday (and weekend) guys!

HBR’S TAKE ON THE MUSIC BIZ:  I thought this was a useful article from the Harvard Business Review about the effect downloads and then streaming have had on the music industry.  It’s pretty startling to see physical album sales (aka CDs) declining by 69% from 2000 to 2015.  What’s even more consequential to the industry is the unbundling of the classic album model.  Long gone are the days of buying a full 15-song album just to hear the one or two hits you really like, when you can either download a single song for 99 cents or here the same song via your choice of streaming services.  The consequences have been transformative on the music industry, and are generally favorable to consumers and artists who would never have broken through in the traditional label model.  In full disclosure one of the study authors is Craig McFadden, who runs Pandora’s music licensing team.  Great read!  (link)

DATA’S 3^RD GENERATION:  The next piece is a guest contributor article on AdExchanger about the evolution of marketing data.  The most interesting aspect of this piece to me is the author’s description of the three major waves of innovation in the world of data – POS, Web, and now Multiscreen.  With each successive generation comes additional capabilities for marketers, but also exponentially higher complexities.  As an example think of cookies used to track web users across several sites, and then try tracking that same individual using multiple devices going from app to app, in a cookie-less environment.  Remarkable to think of how far we’ve come, and also makes you wonder what’s next?!?  (link)

OCTOBER TRITON RATINGS:  Finally, yesterday Triton released its latest Webcast Metrics Ratings for October.  This was sort of an interesting month because overall AAS (Average Active Sessions) actually declined 1% from September.  Reminder that September was up 2% from August, which is a normal seasonal increase. But Triton usually sees continuous streaming growth from September through December.  So even a slight drop in October is weird.  Keep in mind that YoY the growth is still a healthy 10%, so nobody needs to press the panic button just yet.  Just worth keeping an eye on.  The usual historical graph is below.  (link)

Have a great Thursday guys!

FRAUD-A-PALOOZA:  If AdAge is right, 2016 may very well go down as the Year of Ad Fraud.  The root causes for this are so easy to see.  More and more money is surging into digital, and much of this new money is being purchased programmatically, which is much harder to track than IO’d business.  As a result fraudsters have seized on a golden opportunity to make money by using bots and unintentional human clicks to capture digital rev.  It’s sort of like the old saying by Billy the Kid . . . “I rob banks because that’s where the money is.”  Unfortunately for our industry the banks is this case are real clients with real marketing dollars which could have been used in a more productive way.  Hopefully AdAge is right about the MRC catching up to these challenges by implementing more stringent ad standards to start reducing this fraud.  (link)

IHEART’s DEBT SHELL GAME:  You know that I love a good iHeart debt fiasco story as much as the next guy.  So yesterday’s disclosure that they decided not to repay $57M in maturing debt to its parent company, Clear Channel Holdings, caught my attention.  Granted this is the business equivalent of not paying your parents back after they lent you money – so doesn’t really change iHeart’s balance sheet.  But the fact that they’re not making this scheduled payment on Thursday tells you something about their cash situation.  My guess is that iHeart will use more and more of these band-aid moves until they run out of gimmicks and eventually declare bankruptcy.  Radio Ink is covering this from two perspectives.  The first link is the story itself, and then a second link includes details on how Bob Pittman positioned this with his employees.  Looks like somebody has their tap dancing shoes on!  J (link1) (link2)

MEGAREGIONS 101:  Finally today, I’d like to share a concept and image which isn’t directly related to the media industry, but is important to understand if you work in any consumer facing industry in the US.  It’s around the concept of “megaregions”, which are geographically connected concentrations of population and economic activity.  In the early 1900s, when the theory first came about, there were five larger megaregions – think of the Eastern seaboard from Boston to DC as one of these.  As the population has grown they’ve been subdivided over and over, to the point that we now have 50ish primary and dozens of secondary MRs.  These generally fall along the lines of commute patterns created by the Eisenhower-era Interstate System and geographic features like Colorado’s front range going north-south and the mid-Atlantic’s Potomac estuary horseshoe.  An astounding 70% of the US population resides in a megaregion, and it’s the silent hand which has determined the selection of just about all brick and mortar locations for every industry since WWII.  Megaregions are one of the silent forces of nature which guide are industry.  So the just understanding them makes you a more well-rounded marketer.  (link)

Have a great Wednesday guys!

A VERY PROGRAMMATIC HOLIDAYS: It’s no surprise that programmatic ad spending is surging this holiday season.  AdWeek has done a nice job with the attached infographic, showing some emerging trends inside the numbers.  The most pronounced stat is the increase in PMP-based programmatic buying vs. open exchanges.  You can tell this by the YoY doubling of higher priced bids (classified as $4+ CPMs), because open exchanges rarely see CPMs above $1-2.  It’s also worth noting the +85% increase in Header Bidding, as clients bypass DoubleClick-style bidding and go publisher-direct.  It would be interesting to compare stats like this over the next 4-5 holiday seasons to see the direction and velocity of programmatic growth in our industry.  (link)

FIGHT FOR $15 . . . THEN WHAT?: If you live in NY, CA or Chicago you know the issue of a $15/hour minimum wage is hot right now.  Especially so for service sector jobs like those found in the QSR industry, since many of those employees work at or near minimum wage.  That’s why you see many “Fight For $15” protests at McDonald’s and other larger national chains.  Without taking either side of this issue Forbes looks at the possible unintended consequences of what could happen to QSR jobs if $15/hour becomes the normal labor cost.  (Note: While the article is useful, the video does a better job of laying out the repercussions.)  As you’re viewing this keep in mind some of the macro trends facing the restaurant industry right now.  2016 will be the first year that US QSR annual sales have declined after 5 straight years of growth.  This is partly due to the increasing delta between the average cost of eating at home vs. eating out, which makes eating out of home relatively more expensive every year.  This creates a tough paradox . . . employees can’t really live on the current minimum wages paid by the QSRs (especially in major markets where the cost of living is highest), and the QSRs can’t pay more for labor and still be competitive against other meal options.  Suddenly I’m not very hungry . . . (link)

DIGITAL VIDEO TUG OF WAR: Finally today, I’ve spent a ton of time on this blog discussing the competing business models of free ad supported streaming vs. non-ad subscription streaming in the digital audio space.  It turns out the same conflict is happening on the digital video side, and eMarketer has done a nice job laying out the current landscape.  Right now viewer preferences towards digital video is pretty evenly split (53/47) between subscription services like Hulu and Vimeo and YouTube as the dominant ad supported platform.  It feels like these services are compelled to pick one lane or the other – Hulu had tried to do a “freemium” service for years with some elements of each, but recently abandon the ad supported route for a total subscription platform.  Not sure if this market will end up being a direct mirror of what’s happening in the audio space, but it’s good to be aware of our surroundings.  (link)

Have a great Tuesday guys!

MEDIA LESSONS FROM THE ELECTION:  Over the last 30 days Pandora’s Political team has unpacked the trends and results from this past Election cycle, and summarized their findings in the attached blog post.  The overarching learning is that the shotgun approach of TV advertising no longer works the way it used to.  Instead candidates must rely on a more fluid mix of digital, with an emphasis on mobile, digital video and digital audio.  That last insight about over-targeting to the point of hurting scale is also worth noting.  As I’ve said before, the media lessons learned in Presidential Election cycles often work their way into the rest of the industry over the ensuing four years.  It happened in ’08 and ’12, and the smart money says that same thing will happen with ’16.  (link)

NIELSEN’S HOUSE OF CARDS:  If you sell digital audio you’ll often end up in a competitive pitch against broadcast radio because you’re trying to take ad revenue they’ve traditionally claimed.  And you’ll invariably be asked to defend your “numbers”, either Triton’s Webcast Metrics Ratings or you own internal audience data.  In these moments you’ll be compared to Nielsen’s radio ratings as if they’re the gold standard you can’t possibly sell audio without.  To help combat this Inside Radio has conveniently gift wrapped every problem with Nielsen into one article that you might as well print and hang next to your computer.  There are so many problems with Nieslen’s sample size, legacy diary markets, encoding technology, and lack of MRC accreditation in most markets, that it actually becomes tedious to read this one.  And to make matters worse, broadcasters feel like they can only provide this feedback upon the condition of anonymity, as if Nielsen is some sort of advertising mafia that will break your legs if you say something bad about them, no matter how truthful it is.  Seems like a really great setup to provide reliable ratings for the broadcast industry and their clients.  J   (link)

GOING THREE FOR THREE:  This last one has been making the rounds on LinkedIn for a while.  It’s actually from Jeff Weiner, the CEO of LinkedIn, so he seems like a fairly successful guy to take career advice from.J  I think the diagram below is spot on – it really takes a combination of these ingredients to go from good to great in most professions.  So many times you’ll see coworkers and business associates possess two of the three elements, which can get you pretty far in business.  But possessing all three qualities is a rarity, which makes it something special.  Mr. Weiner goes into detail on his interpretation of each bucket in the attached post.  Great reading for a Monday morning as you think about how to approach your own work week!  (link)

Have a great Monday guys!