FAKE NEWS, REAL AD DOLLARS:  There’s been a ton of press since the election around the controversy of fake news stories intentionally making their way into online portals.  Beyond just the issue of disinformation influencing people’s opinions, there’s a very real problem of marketers having their ads placed next to these stories.  This ends up wasting ad budgets and can also make the brand look bad by appearing to sponsor this garbage.  Most of these ad placements occur through programmatic ad networks, because there’s no way to “truth filter” out the fake stories and only run next to legit articles.  As a result you end up with example like this.  I’m guessing Ram didn’t intentionally sponsor coverage of the Yoko Ono/Hillary Clinton affair.  J  (link)

ZERO SUMMING OUT TWITTER:  Twitter’s challenges of stalled user growth and flattened ad revenue are well documented, but you rarely hear about this trend from the perspective of the social media publishers.  The following Digiday article lays out a provocative theory that social is effectively a zero sum game in the US right now – meaning there are very few new social users, just migrators from one platform (Twitter) to another platform (Facebook).  And just as users are migrating over to FB from Twitter, the content publishers are doing the same thing.  The result is sort of a death spiral, where fewer users go to Twitter and see less original content.  Not exactly a bright and sunny forecast for Tweet Nation.  (link)

MAPPING YOUR SALES APPROACH:  Finally today, I wanted to share an interesting matrix on the profiles and roles of the various types of salespeople in our profession. This was generated by Korn Ferry, which is a global people management consultancy.  I’m sure you’ve seen these types of 4-quandrant matrixes before and maybe even used a self-assessment tool to figure out where you fit.  It’s always good to recheck the professional oil from time to time.  So where do you sit today and where are you aspiring to be tomorrow?  Here’s a tip . . . . transactional = bad, and consultative = good.

Have a great Friday (and weekend) everyone!

THE SUM OF ALL FORECASTS:  Business Insider has done a nice job of compiling three of the leading media forecasts into one summary article.  None of the predictions are too shocking . . . digital growing to $100B driven by mobile, TV revenue migrating to OLV, desktop internet being cannibalized by mobile, etc..  Keep in mind as you’re reading this the “Radio” slice of the pie is for terrestrial only – still flatlining at 6%, and Digital Audio is being split across Desktop Internet and Mobile Internet.  Definitely worth the read!  (link)

PREMIUM POWER:  As you know by now, on Tuesday night Pandora announced details of its upcoming on-demand platform called Pandora Premium.  Given that Pandora’s core offering is a free ad-supported model, this new tier will help complete the full spectrum of delivery options so listeners can enjoy their music however they prefer.  To give you a snapshot of yesterday’s press coverage I’ve included an article from Engadget – this one’s more of a product overview. The second link is from RAIN to give the streaming trades perspective.  Both reviews are thorough and overwhelmingly positive, which bodes well for the new service.  (link1)   (link2)

DON’T SLEEP ON APPLE:  Speaking of subscription streaming, yesterday Apple gave an update of its Apple Music audience growth.  Apple says it’s now up to 20M subs (that’s a worldwide #), which is a 5M increase in the last six months.  By comparison, Spotify is sitting at 40M WW subs.  Obviously both companies will be carefully watching what happens to their audience base once Pandora Premium is fully rolled out.  (link)

Have a great Thursday guys!

THE FUTURE OF RETAIL IS NOW:  Everyone in our industry acknowledges the impact Amazon has had on the Retail category.  They changed the game by making online purchases with home delivery as acceptable as brick & mortar retail.  Now Amazon is planning to take things a step further with the launch of Amazon Go, which will completely eliminate the in store checkout process.  The long term vision is consumers picking products off the shelf and literally walking out of the store shoplifting style, but still paying for their purchases using a combination of RFID and Beacon technologies.  Picture elaborate digital readers being placed at the store exits picking up sensor tags on every product in order to tally what’s been bought and then billing the consumer through a pre-established account.  This concept isn’t some way off in the future Jetson’s thing . . . it’s being beta tested right now at a concept store in Seattle.  Get ready for this technology to change the way all of us shop in the near future!  (link)

YOUTUBE PAYS UP:  Over the past few months there’s been a steady stream of complaints from artists and labels that YouTube isn’t paying its fair share in royalty payments for music which runs on the site.  Yesterday YouTube fired back with the disclosure that it’s paid $1B in royalties over the past year, which puts it near the top of the global royalty payment list.  YouTube’s actual payment model is a little convoluted and hard to understand – in simplest terms think of a rev share for ads that run on artist pages.  So maybe there’s more of a communication gap between the parties than the “value gap” the music industry is claiming?  Regardless, a billion dollars in payments is a heck of a lot of zeros back to the industry.  (link)

MORE VINYL THAN DOWNLOADS . . . YIKES!:  Finally today, here’s a striking anecdotal stat on the state of music downloads.  During 2016 vinyl album sales in the UK doubled and have now surpassed digital downloads, which fell by 50% YoY.  I know this stat is just for England, but it tells the story of complete abandonment of downloads, a music delivery system which was the hot new thing just 6-7 years ago.  The reason for this decline, of course, is the rise of streaming which allows listeners to effectively rent the music they’re listening to instead of making the full purchase.  I haven’t seen the 2016 US download sales stats yet, but I’m sure the story is similar on this side of the pond.  (link)

Have a great Wednesday guys!

THE VIABILITY OF “PLUS”:  Now that Pandora and iHeart have announced details of their on-demand platforms, featuring a mid-tier or “light” option at $4.99/mo, industry experts are trying to make predictions on how successful the Plus options will be compared to the full $10/mo plans.  RAIN is featuring one consultant’s study of the iHeart audience, with the prediction that roughly 4M listeners will eventually subscribe to iHeart’s All Access Plus.  Admittedly the math seems a little caveman, and consumers will always express purchase intent at higher levels before they’re forced to whip out their CCs, but low to mid seven figures does seem plausible.  It’ll be interesting to look back a year from now and see where this number ends up.  (link)

TV’S TAKE ON TV:  UBS is holding a 2-day investor conference this week around the topic of linear and digital TV.  The following AdWeek article is a summation of content from streamers like Netflix and old-line broadcasters like CBS.  Keep in mind as you’re reading this that the #1 goal of these execs it to make their company strategies look as strong as possible to the investors in the room, so expect some sugar coating.  With that said, it’s still interesting to compare digital streamers’ expansion strategy to broadcasters’ plan to find more ways to charge for existing content.  At both ends of the industry you can tell that there’s massive change afoot in TV land. (link)

MEDIA’S TIPPING POINT:  As 2016 winds down we’re started to see forecasts about the 2017 ad market.  Magna Global and Zenith are both calling for digital spending to surpass TV globally in 2017.  As you may recall digital is now outbilling TV in the US, and is poised to surpass TV globally next year.  Mobile is the primary driver if digital growth making up 45% of total digital revenue in 2017, and is expected to comprise an amazing 72% of digital rev within the next five years!  Traditional media will lose two major revenue drivers from 2016’s Olympics and Pres Election, so expect digital to fill the vacuum in what experts are calling a “tipping point year” for our industry.  Should be an interesting ride!  (link)

Have a great Tuesday guys!

THE STATE OF STREAMING:  I need to give full credit on this first article to Matt Sweeney, full-time Sales Dev Manager at Pandora and part time beat writer for the DG.  Matt found one of the best summations of today’s streaming ecosystem I’ve seen, on of all places, pitchfork.com.  Keep in mind as you’re reading this that they’re only talking about the subscription-based streaming platforms, so Spotify looks like the big dog, Pandora looks like an up-and-comer, and iHeart isn’t even featured.  But there’s still a wealth of solid data to chew on – especially in the back half of the article where they dissect Pros/Cons/What’s Next for the top 10 streamers.  This one’s pretty long so pack a lunch before you start reading – definitely worth the time though.  (link)

SANTA CLAUS IS COMING TO YOUR SMARTPHONE:  You’ve seen the shopping stats from the first part of the holiday season, including Black Friday and Cyber Monday.  YoY in-store shopping is down slightly, but that’s more than made up for with +12% in online purchases.  Digging a little deeper inside the #s you’ll see one of the most important stats – that almost 40% of online purchases are now being done on a mobile device.  Simply put, mCommerce is becoming the most important part of eCommerce, just as eCommerce has become essential to overall Retail.  This morning AdWeek is featuring a useful infographic highlighting many of the most relevant mobile stats so far from this holiday season.  (link)

A NEW MODEL FOR INDUSTRY LEADERSHIP:  And finally today, respective business blogger Tom Goodwyn created this simple but interesting way to look at some of the biggest up and coming tech companies in their related fields.  The point is striking – the new way to become a leader in many industries is less about owning physical assets and more about connecting pre-existing dots better than your competitors.  Google is legendary at this.  Now some of these companies are doing the same thing and changing their respective games.

Have a great Monday guys!

IHEART’S ON-DEMAND LAUNCH:  Big news out of the iHeart camp yesterday with the reveal of their new on-demand service.  The product, called All Access, will be powered by Rhapsody which is a rebrand of the original Napster streaming service.  By making this a partnership instead of a self-built platform, iHeart was able to quick launch within a few months.  The RAIN article (first link) has a good summary of their tiered offerings – spoiler alert . . . it’s a copycat of the $5-$10/mo options Pandora will launch later this month.  I’ve also included a Variety article (second link) to get some perspective from outside the radio trades.  Keep in mind as you’re reading that about 85% of iHeart’s listeners don’t listen to their current free ad-supported stream.  So to get those listeners to migrate to the stream and start paying for a monthly sub might be a bridge too far.  As Variety notes “iHeart competitor Cumulus tried to do the same through a partnership with Rdio last year, but ended up writing off millions because radio listeners simply didn’t bite.”  Time will tell how this shakes out.  (link1)  (link2)

THE PRECIPICE OF TOTAL TV MEASUREMENT:  We’ve been talking about need for TV to unify cross-screen measurement for a while now.  Nielsen has committed to a full rollout of Total TV Audience Measurement by April’17, and based on the comments of Group M’s Lyle Schwartz, it looks like that’s not a moment too soon.  Traditional set top ratings are in a free fall as viewership migrates to content consumption on mobile devices.  Clients and agencies are screaming for a standardized way to buy across all platforms.  If this transition successfully takes hold before next year’s TV upfronts it will be a game changer for the industry.  And it will also become a blue print for the same ratings unification needed in the radio industry.  Fasten your seat belts for this one!  (link)

THE DEFINITION OF HARD TIME:  And finally, here’s a fun article to send you into the weekend.  Just when you thought getting a DUI was bad enough, Canada has found a way to add insult to injury . . . Nickelback style!  There’s really nothing more to say, so I’ll just let you read for yourselves.  J  (link)

Have a great Friday (and weekend) guys!

NOT SO BAD AFTER ALL?:  If you touch any auto account you’ve probably heard about the anticipated reduction in US Auto Market Unit Sales over the next year, after six straight years of increases.  OEMs, Dealer Groups, and Dealerships are all using the fear of a shrinking pie as a justification to advertise less.  Ironically just the idea of spending less on marketing to offset declining sales can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, since less marketing will (of course!) lead to lower sales.  Well it turns out all the doom and gloom might be a little overblown.  The NADA is out with their annual forecast for 2017, and the anticipated YoY decrease looks to be very small – just 300,000 fewer total units, which is a little over a 1% decrease.  Conversely light truck sales are expected to increase, and that’s a much more profitable segment for all three tiers.  So even in a market that’s selling 1% fewer automobiles than last year there’s still money to be made!  Who’s ready to advertise their truck sale?!?  (link)

MAYBE YOU’RE REALLY DRIVING A GEELY:  And speaking of the Auto industry, I came across this handy infographic showing the ownership trees of every global OEM.  Did you know luxury brands like Jaguar and Land Rover are owned by Tata Motors?  Have you ever even heard of Geely, owners of Volvo?  If you ever wanted to geek out on the global auto industry this is your chart!

SO GOOGLE ANALYTICS IS THE DEVIL?:  Finally today, I was forwarded the following article which originally appeared in TechCrunch back in August.  The idea of Google Analytics ruining (disrupting, if you prefer a better word) the traditional marketing model is a provocative one.  I’ll give the author credit for laying the foundation of his argument by separating marketing strategy (Social, for instance) from the platforms themselves (Facebook, as an example), and explaining how these lines have been blurred in the digital age.  Then he hypothesizes how GA, with its primitive last click distribution model, actually fooled many clients into thinking they were doing good marketing via digital, without really doing an appropriate analysis of their digital ROAS.  In simplest terms, marketers have rushed to one side of the boat just to “do digital” with default publishers like FB and Google, and then use GA to justify their decision.  I told you this was provocative!  The article itself is fairly long . . . maybe a good weekend read.  J  (link)

Have a great Thursday guys!