TCR’s (SORT OF) DEBUT:  Starting tomorrow Nielsen will make public a limited release of its Total Content Ratings (TCR) platform.  This will allow TV broadcasters to see their own TCR numbers along with their traditional TV ratings, to make a side by side comparison.  TCR is widely expected to show higher ratings for the broadcasters (as in the example below), because it takes into account the full spectrum of ways viewers consume video these days including Digital, VOD, DVR, and of course live TV.  Originally Nielsen was going to go with a full commercial release of TCR on March 1^st, but pushed that date off indefinitely due to concerns voiced about TCR’s accuracy from some of the networks.  So tomorrow’s release is more of a “test kitchen” to let the industry get comfortable with the new methodology.  (link)

QUIRKY MILLENNIALS’ MEDIA USAGE STATS:  Speaking of video ads, there are a couple of eye-raising stats on the attached millennials media usage infographic, courtesy of Montreal research firm LaunchLeap.  It’s not surprising that 70% of millennials either block YouTube video ads or skip them as soon as they can.  But it’s very surprising that these same viewers numerically rate their interest in traditional TV ads at 4.1 (on a 1 to 5 scale).  Maybe their receptivity to regular TV commercials is higher because they’re forced to watch the ads, while skipable digital video ads feel more like a nuisance since you have the ability to navigate around them?  There are some other quirky stats around telemarketing (yes, actual live phone calls), and purchase referral sourcing too.  (link)

NOT YOUR FATHER’S STEREO SYSTEM:  If there was ever any doubt that we’re entering the golden age of audio, check out this stat.  In Q4’16 home audio hardware sales rose +28% over 2015.  This increase was driven by new connected home products like Amazon Echo and Google Home.  This marks the beginning of a passing of the torch from the hi-fi speaker era to the age of IoT total home connected sound systems.  It’s also proof positive that music is as important as ever amongst the dizzying array of entertainment choices we now have coming into our homes.  It’s a great sign of things to come for the entire digital music industry!  (link)

Have a great Tuesday guys!

NOT FAKE NEWS . . . FACEBOOK NEWS:  A week ago Friday Facebook hosted a unique meeting in NY with dozens of TV networks and other video content publishers.  The goal of the meeting was two-fold.  First, FB is trying to separate itself from the “everything you see on Social platforms is fake crap” perception by launching the Facebook Journalism Project, headed by former NBC Network News Reporter Campbell Brown.  The second goal was around monetization of video content (of course!).  During the meeting FB outlined a product roadmap which will culminate in a Facebook Live API, that will allow publishers to produce live video segments directly to their new Facebook TV app, and share revenue from mid-roll ads embedded in content.  The response from the networks and publishers in the room was cautious optimism.  They generally view FB as “frienemy” who can simultaneously be a fantastic new free distribution channel and/or the ultimate predator competitor.  Should be interesting to watch this play out.  (link)

IT’S A STREAMING WORLD, AND THE LABELS ARE JUST LIVING IN IT:  It’s official . . . streaming has overtaken physical music sales as the top revenue producer for the labels.  We’ve seen hints of this happening throughout 2016, but now we’re getting the full picture with UMG’s 2016 Annual Revenue Report.  The stats are in Euros, but you can still see the relative comparison of streaming’s revenue growth and physical music’s decline.  You can bet the same story is playing out at Sony and Warner, as well as countless other smaller labels who are even less reliant on CD or Vinyl sales.  Years from now someone may ask you where you were the day the music industry went digital . . . and today is that day!  (link)

COMSCORE ADMITS MISSTEPS:  If you’ve spent any time in Digital media you know how important viewability and audience verification tagging across web and in-app have become.  That’s why the admission by ComScore’s CEO about the “disappointment” of his company’s own vCE product is such an eye opener.  In a corporate update call on Friday ComScore’s Gian Fulgoni admitted publicly that ComScore had failed to adequately integrate vCE on the supply side (especially with Facebook), and was effectively playing catch up with other tagging vendors like Moat, and Integral Ad Sciences.  Although they weren’t mentioned by name on the call, you could imagine the competitive pressure being applied by Nielsen’s OCR platform is also making the incumbent ComScore pretty nervous.  I know this topic may seem like an alphabet soup of product abbreviations, but it’s an important subject to be versed in within our industry.  Useful read!  (link)

Have a great Monday guys!

MILLIONS OF WAYS TO RUN BETTER AUDIO CREATIVE:  Big news yesterday on the audio innovation front courtesy of Pandora’s announced partnership with a creative software company called A Million Ads.  Using AMA’s technology Pandora will begin offering dynamic personalized audio ads as well as sequential ad delivery to clients later this year.  So what does this mean in plain English?  Imagine being able to automate the process of creating thousands of different variations of the same audio message, customized down to time of day, weather conditions, listeners’ name, etc..  Then imagine being able to sequence or “story tell” this audio creative to a specific listener in a certain order – like serving them a branding message first followed up with a price-item call to action message.  Sounds like fantasy, right?  Well by later in 2017 advertisers will be able to do exactly this with Pandora’s new creative functionality.  (link)

ONE BALANCE SHEET, TWO STORIES:  Yesterday iHeart announced its Q4 earnings with two very opposite highlights.  First, their radio operations turned in a strong quarter with +4.5% revenue vs. Q4’15.  A little more than half of that growth was attributed to Political, but even if you take that revenue out they were still +2.2% YoY.  On the other side of the coin iHeart’s debt continues to be the 800 lbs gorilla in the room.  As of 12/31/16 iHeart was carrying $20.4B in debt at an average interest rate of 8.5%.  For 2016 they paid $1.8B in interest which was the single highest cash expense – over payroll, content, etc..  So basically iHeart continues to grow their top line just to feed the debt monster at the bottom of their balance sheet.  Doesn’t seem like a very fun way to run a business.  I’ve attached two Radio Ink articles framing out both sides of this story.  (link1) (link2)

TRITON’S DEC’16 RATINGS:  Finally today, Triton just released its December Webcast Metrics Ratings.  Dec’16 experienced the normal holiday jump, with listening increasing 3% over November.  In December Pandora continued to lead all streamers with 2,077,000 Average Active Sessions (AAS), on the strength of almost 2 Billion session starts and an average session length of 35 minutes.  For the entire year total US Streaming Listenership was +11% over 2015 – robust growth even after several years of double digit increases!  The usual historical trends and bar charts are below.  (link)

Have a great Friday (and weekend) everyone!

PAYPAL ON DIGITAL MUSIC CONSUMPTION?!?:  There’s another piece of digital music consumption research making the rounds these days.  This one comes from PayPal, of all places.  They surveyed 10,000 of their users on a variety of digital usage questions to derive the profile below.  This one’s sort of interesting because it combines download and streaming listening into one set of results.  So in the case of Apple’s #, that’s the combined listening from iTunes downloads and Apple Music streaming.  The scale amongst the streamers is relatively consistent to what we’ve seen from other sources with Pandora at 2x of Spotify and 3x of Apple Music.  Thanks for the data PayPal!  (link)

RETAIL’S NEW MAGIC FORMULA:  As Q4 earnings results continue to roll in from the major retailers one thing is becoming abundantly clear.  To be competitive retailers must possess a strong B&M footprint and a robust ecommerce platform, and make sure they’re connected by features like in-store pickup/returns, free shipping, etc..  Only this full array will meet consumer demand and allow that retailer to stay competitive moving forward.  Walmart and Home Depot have seen success with this strategy.  And now even laggards like Macy’s are racing to catch up.  The following eMarketer link does a nice job summarizing this movement and provides some early results. (link)

RADIO HAS BIGGER PROBLEMS THAN A LACK OF INDUSTRY ADVOCACY:  If you follow the radio trades you’ve seen a ton of Entercom CEO David Field lately.  This is because Entercom is merging with CBS Radio to create the second largest broadcaster in the US behind iHeart.  With this larger footprint comes a new soapbox for Mr. Field to stand on and espouse the virtues of radio – which nobody can blame him for doing.  But when he attributes radio’s problems a lack of industry advocacy I need to throw the penalty flag.  The reason radio is stuck in the basement with 6-7% of ad spending is due to a product quality issue.  Stations are bloated with 12-18 minutes of commercials per hour which no sane person will listen through.  The non-commercial content ranges from maddeningly repetitive playlists, to meaningless DJ babble, to traffic reports whose only purpose is to deliver a live :15 ad at the end of the report.  And to top it all off, anyone under the age of 30 is getting the same music from countless digital music sources and not an FM transmitter.  My guess is that if Entercom/CBS fixes these issues then radio’s industry perception will change on its own.  J  (link)

Have a great Thursday guys!

PAYPAL ON DIGITAL MUSIC CONSUMPTION?!?:  There’s another piece of digital music consumption research making the rounds these days.  This one comes from PayPal, of all places.  They surveyed 10,000 of their users on a variety of digital usage questions to derive the profile below.  This one’s sort of interesting because it combines download and streaming listening into one set of results.  So in the case of Apple’s #, that’s the combined listening from iTunes downloads and Apple Music streaming.  The scale amongst the streamers is relatively consistent to what we’ve seen from other sources with Pandora at 2x of Spotify and 3x of Apple Music.  Thanks for the data PayPal!  (link)

RETAIL’S NEW MAGIC FORMULA:  As Q4 earnings results continue to roll in from the major retailers one thing is becoming abundantly clear.  To be competitive retailers must possess a strong B&M footprint and a robust ecommerce platform, and make sure they’re connected by features like in-store pickup/returns, free shipping, etc..  Only this full array will meet consumer demand and allow that retailer to stay competitive moving forward.  Walmart and Home Depot have seen success with this strategy.  And now even laggards like Macy’s are racing to catch up.  The following eMarketer link does a nice job summarizing this movement and provides some early results. (link)

RADIO HAS BIGGER PROBLEMS THAN A LACK OF INDUSTRY ADVOCACY:  If you follow the radio trades you’ve seen a ton of Entercom CEO David Field lately.  This is because Entercom is merging with CBS Radio to create the second largest broadcaster in the US behind iHeart.  With this larger footprint comes a new soapbox for Mr. Field to stand on and espouse the virtues of radio – which nobody can blame him for doing.  But when he attributes radio’s problems a lack of industry advocacy I need to throw the penalty flag.  The reason radio is stuck in the basement with 6-7% of ad spending is due to a product quality issue.  Stations are bloated with 12-18 minutes of commercials per hour which no sane person will listen through.  The non-commercial content ranges from maddeningly repetitive playlists, to meaningless DJ babble, to traffic reports whose only purpose is to deliver a live :15 ad at the end of the report.  And to top it all off, anyone under the age of 30 is getting the same music from countless digital music sources and not an FM transmitter.  My guess is that if Entercom/CBS fixes these issues then radio’s industry perception will change on its own.  J  (link)

Have a great Thursday guys!

THE PROBLEM OF ZERO RATED DATA:  Over the past month I’ve mentioned the prospect of the FCC’s current Net Neutrality regulations being modified or reversed under the Trump Administration.  There’s also another twist to this industry issue from something called “zero rated data”.  Several Telcos and Cable providers currently offer delivery of some streaming products without counting it against user’s data.  Think of T-Mobile’s unlimited/free streaming of music services like Pandora as an example.  Right now zero rated content doesn’t fall under the NN regulation, which makes it a loophole.  NN proponents would love to see zero rated delivery go away on the grounds that it creates the type of prioritized access the regulation is supposed to curtail.    On the other hand, if more and more service providers go zero rated it may completely gut NN, even without a formal rule change.  We’ll keep watching this one.  (link)

WALMART GETS ITS DIGITAL ON:  Next up are a pair of articles showcasing Walmart’s progress on the digital front.  First is are Q4 earnings which were reported yesterday.  Overall revenue thumped Wall Street’s expectation on the strength of +29% growth in their online sales.  This increase was driven by last year’s purchase of Jet.com, a major ecommerce site.  The marriage of Walmart and Jet is another positive example of what can happen if you combine the best of B&M and online commerce.  The second article is a glimpse into Walmart’s store of the future.  Like Amazon, Walmart is in the lab trying to perfect the retail experience of tomorrow.  Walmart’s version involves a “check-n-go” concept where customers scan-gun purchases as they put them into bags in their carts – thus eliminating the need for a checkout line.  Will these innovations be enough for Walmart to compete with Amazon for the future of E-tail?  Only time will tell. (link1) (link2)

A NOT SO SNAPPY REACTION TO A PROPOSED IPO:  Snap is making the rounds with investors on its pre-IPO tour.  First up was the UK where London’s financial set got their chance to hear from Snap in person.  The initial reviews have been mixed, with the word “neutral” ruling the day.  Meaning investors don’t see much upside (or downside) on a $14-16 share price and a $20B market cap.  There’s also a broader worry about Snapchat’s decelerating user growth in the back half of 2016, copycat competition from juggernauts Facebook and YouTube who can easily replicate Snapchat’s “story” format, and an over reliance on the here today/gone tomorrow Teen-Young Adult segment – an astounding 70% of US Snapchat users are between 18-24 yo!  All of this creates a proposition for investors where they’re asked to invest near the top of everyone’s valuation model for a nubile product which has yet to prove it can graduate into adulthood. (link)

Have a great Wednesday guys!

COOKIES AREN’T ENOUGH:  I know this article is a little deep for a Tuesday morning right after the holiday weekend, but it’s an important topic to be fluent in if you work in digital media.  By now we all know the difference between web-based cookies and mobile device IDs for tracking.  Device IDs track in-app usage which cookies cannot, and therefore are the preferred method for digital audience targeting.  But device ID-based data is relatively scarce and publishers are still sitting on mountains of web-cookie data.  So even when you can match the two (tracking the same user from their web cookie to their device ID), the scale is usually so small marketers can’t apply deterministic 1-1 targeting.  As a result publishers are still using cookies for probabilistic targeting (aka modeling) across a pool of device IDs . That’s why publishers who possess a full set of registration data, and whose users sign in on both web and mobile devices, have such a competitive advantage when it comes to mobile audience segs.  If you need some reinforcement on this topic the following AdExchanger link breaks it down a little further.  (link)

:30 VIDEO RETHINK:  Change is coming to YouTube’s video ad platform.  Beginning in 2018 they’ll stop selling forced-view :30s, and instead concentrate on :20s, :06 bumpers, and :30 skippable ads (which they only charge advertisers for upon completion).  This change is being implemented because of increasing user resistance against having to watch full :30s in between video content segments which average 1:30.  It’s just too much of a price to pay for relatively little payoff.  You could also see this as a proactive move by YouTube to clean up their platform ahead of Facebook entrance in the digital video game.  (link)

DON’T BELIEVE RADIO’S REACH HYPE:  Last week the following AdWeek article was published on the merits of reach-based traditional media platforms like broadcast TV and radio.  I believe the author makes a valid point on the need to balance the best aspects of traditional and digital media (although I don’t necessarily agree with the T79%/D21% allocation they’re recommending).  Since the article came out we’ve seen a few examples of broadcasters using it as rationale for clients to spend more on radio by positioning themselves as the best vehicle for reach (of course!).  You always hear the stat that 93% of the population listens to AM/FM radio in a week, and I’m not disputing the number.  But what I do take issue with is the idea that you can feasibly buy that reach.  There are 11,380 commercial radio stations in the US.  So to capture the total reach you’d need to buy a them all simultaneously.  Even if you break it down to one larger DMA, you’d still need to go 20-30 deep on a single buy.  The logistical challenges and sheer cost of doing this are unfeasible.  Not to mention the wasted duplication creating by hitting the same button-pushing listener across multiple stations.  Bottom line . . . radio’s reach advantage isn’t actionable, and therefore not an advantage at all.  (link)

Have a great Tuesday guys!

THE FUTURE OF “E-TAIL”:  So this is interesting.  Home Depot hasn’t opened any new stores in the last three years, yet their sales increased 7% in 2016 to an astounding $90B.  How did they achieve this?  They’re transforming into an “E-tailer”.  More specifically they’ve committed to an Integrated channel strategy where both e-commerce and retail sales pillars complement one another.  For example, 40% of HD’s online purchases are picked up by customers in store.  And in reverse, many customers go online to look up store-level inventory of a product before making the trip to get it.  It’s a model of synergy which combines the best of both sides of Retail into a lethal marketing machine.  With success like this it’s no wonder that others (like the speculation of Amazon buying Macy’s), are looking to integrate their ecommerce platform with an existing B&M footprint. (link)

FCC TO THE RESCUE OF AM?:  Ajit Pai, the new Chairman of the FCC, is charting a course to change many current media and telco regulations.  This isn’t surprising given he was appointed by Trump while his predecessor was appointed by Obama.  But what is surprising is Mr. Pai’s infatuation with saving the AM band (that’s right AM, not even FM).  Why is saving AM his “personal priority”?  The publicly facing rational is that AM provides a valuable public safety service – think of getting emergency info in a worst case scenario hurricane that’s knocked out internet and cellular services.  While this scenario could happen, the frequency is so rare it’s hard to justify propping up an entire half of an industry for those times.  I think the real motivation is to help radio broadcasters from losing the value of almost half their sticks if AM radio goes away.  In the US right now there are roughly 11,000 commercial stations, of which 5,000 are AM.  Of that number maybe 100-200 AM boomers in the large markets really matter.  While the other 97% of AM stations are relegated to playing Classical music or NPR rebroadcasts.  And this the is the media platform the FCC is prioritizing to save?!?  (link)

WORK-LIFE BALANCE INTEGRATION:  Finally this week I’d like to leave you with a very intriguing LinkedIn post which includes a new take on the age old challenge of Work-Life Balance.  This comes from Spark-MediaVest’s EVP of Generational Intelligence Scott Hess, who many of us know as one of the great thought leaders in media today.  Mr. Hess’s assertion that “Work-Life Integration” is the new Work-Life Balance, is a fascinating paradigm shift to think about.  I believe his theory accurately explains why the lines of work and free time are being blurred by millennials who don’t see the two activities as binary and mutually exclusive.  This is MANDATORY reading for all of you people managers out there, as it will help you gain an understanding of these new cultural norms.  Great reading for the long weekend!  (link)

Have a great Friday and holiday weekend guys!  Be back on Tuesday.

PRODUCT PLACEMENT DILEMMA:  When does original content involving a brand cross over into paid sponsorship?  It’s a fine line which the execs at NBC may be about to cross for SNL.  We’ve all seen their commercial-style skits featuring real products like this Totino’s example (warning – mildly NSFW).  Up until now brands have been featured involuntarily and haven’t paid for product insertion.  According to AdWeek NBC is considering testing paid placements in future skits.  There’s an obvious revenue motivation to do this – you’d have to assume clients will pay a huge premium for content integration.  But does featuring a brand water down the comedic aspect of the skit?  You can easily imagine a CMO wanting to “approve” how their product is being featured if they’re paying for it.  That could make for some really lame skits if the writers can’t use cutting/sarcastic humor.  It’s the classic tug of war between sales and editorial content.  My bet is that NBC’s Sales team will end up with more of the rope when all is said and done.  (link)

TO STREAM OR TO DOWNLOAD . . . THAT IS THE QUESTION:  There’s been an overall trend in the audio industry towards streaming content and away from downloading it.  The reasoning is simple – why purchase a download when you can “rent it” via streaming subscription or listen for free on an ad-supported platform.  However, despite the trend there are still a significant number of downloaders out there.  The following Integr8 Research link and graph illustrate the demographic profiles of each group.  The line of demarcation is right at 25 yo – with younger more tech savvy listeners streaming, and their older counterparts still downloading.  My guess is that streaming will begin to win out as more content becomes available via stream and those early adopters age up in the primary 25-54 yo demo.  (link)

YAHOO’S WOES CONTINUE TO MOUNT:  The good news for Yahoo is it looks like the acquisition deal by Verizon is still going to happen.  The bad news is Yahoo’s value continues to tumble, as reflected by the purchase price being dropped by $250M.  Much of this decline is attributed to the numerous Yahoo data breaches which have come to light since the merger announcement – Verizon will take on liability for these once they own Yahoo.  It also speaks to a general sense of Yahoo’s declining importance as a digital publisher.  Honestly, besides Yahoo Finance stock lookups and Fantasy Football what does anyone use it for anymore?  Sort of feels like Verizon is catching a falling knife. (link)

PRINCE’S POWER ON PANDORA:  Finally today, the power of Prince’s fan base was on full display this week with the announcement that listeners had added 686,000 new Prince stations on Pandora in the first 24 hours of his music being released to the streamer.  This is an astonishing number which shows what can happen when a legendary musician who has limited access to his music suddenly becomes available to the masses.  For all you math geeks out there, 686,000 listeners adding Prince equals roughly 1 out of every 450 persons 13+ in the United States – all doing the same activity on Pandora on the same day!  (link)

Have a great Thursday guys!

THE PROBLEM WITH CHASING SHINY METAL OBJECTS:  First up today is a dose of reality for digital darling of the moment Snapchat.  Yes user growth is strong, and yes many marketers are lining up to cut deals with them.  But as we know just running ads isn’t enough – the impressions actually need to be seen by the right audience and acted upon.  Based on this criteria Snapchat is struggling.  According to a Fluent study 69% of SC users “Always or Often” skip ads, and that number jumps to 80% in their prime 18-24 yo demo.  The reason for this is SC users come for social content and try to navigate around ads in order to get what they came for.  This doesn’t help advertisers looking for that all-important ROAS. The other problem is data.  SC doesn’t own its data which gives them very limited targeting options, and even less of an ability to show attribution.  They’re starting to address this shortcoming with new third party data partnerships like the one with Oracle, but they have miles to go to meet industry norms.  So the next time you see a client getting tangled up in the Christmas lights of a flashy new SC sponsored lens pitch, maybe remind them about the importance of digital marketing fundamentals like audience segmentation, viewed ads, and proven attribution. (link)

FBTV IS COMING SOONER THAN YOU THINK:  It’s official – Facebook is moving into TV land.  We’ve seen hints of this over the past few weeks, with moves like being added to Nielsen’s Digital Video Measurement platform and yesterday’s disclosure that they’re speaking with the labels about music video licensing deals.  All of this is laying the foundation for a standalone FB app for Video content.  This was originally reported by the WSJ, but since their content is behind a paywall I’ve included a Business Insider link with all the details.  (Special thanks to DG Investigative Reporter Hunter Bradford for tracking this down!)  Needless to say, if I were a traditional broadcast or cable TV network I’d be very nervous about FB getting into my kitchen as a video content hub.  (link)

APPLE ON APPLE MUSIC:  And finally today, more public commentary from Apple SVP Eddie Cue on the state of Apple Music and their continued use of “Exclusives” as a promotional strategy.  This is basically a restatement of comments during last week’s Q4 Earnings call, but if you want to hear it straight from the horse’s mouth go to minute 20 of the embedded video.  (link)

Have a great Wednesday guys!