LET THE BRAINWASHING CONTINUE: Nielsen is out with another propaganda piece about how AM/FM radio still effectively reaches millennials. The gist of their research in the attached RAIN article is that the number of millennials listening to radio every week has remained steady at about 71-72M for the past several years. But that’s not the headline I see. In the graph below the number which jumps off the page is Streaming’s millennial reach, which has grown to 48M – that’s two-thirds of the AM/FM number! The sheer fact that there’s parity between these two numbers proves that millennials are closer than ever to crossing the digital divide into streaming at the expense of radio. Keep in mind an individual can be counted in both stats if they listen to any amount of terrestrial radio and streaming in the same week (which most people do), so the real test of AM/FM’s strength with millennials is in the Time Spent Listening. I wonder what Nielsen’s AM/FM TSL numbers look like for millennial listeners? My guess is that it’s dropping quickly as millennials migrate to streaming. Maybe that’s the real story Nielsen should be covering, instead of clinging to Radio’s reach life preserver.
HOLIDAY’17, BY THE NUMBERS: Last Friday eMarketer released its forecast of Retail sales for Holiday’17. The overall estimates look positive – calling for +3.1% YoY growth compared to +2.9% in 2016. The engine for this growth is (surprise!) eCommerce, with an expected +16.6% surge YoY. If those numbers hold true eCommerce will comprise 11.5% of total holiday sales – still a minority of the spending, but it’s starting to become a significant slice of the total pie. It’s also worth noting that holiday sales as a % of annual Retail sales is still declining slightly to 18.4% of the annual total. This is probably due to early-season sales incentives in October (or even September!) pulling purchases forward from the traditional Nov-Dec time frame. My only request is that we get through Labor Day without seeing any holiday ads this year!
GIVING CREDIT WHERE IT’S DUE: Finally today, I know I regularly criticize Network TV as a legacy video platform with eroding ratings and revenue, but even I need to tip my hat at what NBCUniversal has just pulled off through the leadership of Linda Yaccarino. All told NBCU has raked in $6.5B (and counting) in upfront spending commitments across their network family and digital extensions. Granted, their sales team is benefiting from a once-in-a-generation ratings trifecta with the Winter Olympics, Super Bowl, and World Cup all airing on the same network in 2018. But these products don’t drive revenue by themselves, you have to actually convert the sales. Based on the attached AdWeek link Ms. Yaccarino and team are doing just that. And the recipe for their success looks an awful lot like how the top digital publishers’ approach sales. Start with scale, use data to deliver the right audience as efficiently as possible, elevate brand relationships to content partnerships, and prove attribution on the back end. The interview is an inspiring read, and really tells the story of a network sales org which has truly transformed itself to compete on today’s media battlefield.
Have a great Tuesday guys!
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