RACISM COMES TO ONLINE RADIO:  So this isn’t good. Up until now digital media’s controversial content problem has been limited to video and social platforms like YouTube and Facebook.  But thanks to some investigative reporting by Buzzfeed in the attached link, it looks like racist and neo-Nazi content is thriving on audio streamers too.  Publishers like TuneIn, Stitcher and especially user upload-based SoundCloud are inadvertently home to specialty stations like Radio Aryan, Renegade Broadcasting and others.  These channels are blatant about what they stand for – one even claims that it’s “radio for white people”.  And where there’s racist content there’s sure to be an unsuspecting advertiser whose ad gets placed next to this trash.  So far brands like McDonald’s, Kaiser Permanente and Lyft have been spotted on these race-based stations.  Of course these brands aren’t looking to advertise here.  They’re innocently buying a broader audience segment which happens to include these stations.  Looks like even the audio streamers need to clean up their content houses.

TIME COMES TO DIGITAL MEDIA MEASUREMENT:  Pun intended here . . . it’s about time.  In the post-scale world we’re living in most marketers understand the value of time spent with an ad unit, because time is a proxy for engagement.  But up until now formal standards haven’t been in place to assign value to time spent.  That’s why yesterday’s announcement by the MRC to implement a new standard called Duration Weighting is such an important step forward.  The article itself is fairly technical, so I’ll boil it down for you.  With Duration Weighting the value of an impression delivered can be indexed up if time spent with the ad in view is longer, and even indexed down if ad view time is shorter.  The new standard is still in draft form, so expect a formal rollout of Duration Weighting sometime during the first half of 2018.  Which means we’re in the ironic position of still having to waste time waiting for a way to measure time.

WHERE THE PUCK IS GOING IN 2018:  One of the most famous sports quotes of all time came from Wayne Gretzky when he explained his success in hockey by saying “I skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.”  This is the perfect mindset to have as we wrap up 2017 and look to next year.  So where is the puck going for Digital Media in 2018?  AdWeek asked a number of industry experts what to expect for the upcoming year and then framed out their responses in the attached link.  The overall tone was very optimistic in a “we’ll finally get there” kind of way.  Here’s a summary of the seven highlighted themes:  1) AI to amplify but not replace, 2) Machine Learning comes to programmatic, 3) Header Bidding hits mobile, 4) Brand Safety finally gets real, 4) Deep Neural networks will begin interpreting data for us, 5) the Ad Fraud war is won, and 7) Blockchain comes to AdTech.  Are you versed in each of these topics?  If not, and you want to stay relevant in digital media, it might be a good time to get your hockey skates on.

Have a great Friday (and weekend) guys!

NEW TECH FEUD BREWING:  Well you knew it was just a matter of time before this happened.  Google and Amazon are beginning to snipe one another by pulling their products from the other’s platform.  As described in the attached Verge link, Amazon threw the first punch by blocking Google’s IoT products like Nest thermostats and Chrome Cast from being sold on Amazon.com.  Now Google is retaliating by prohibiting YouTube from being accessible through Amazon’s Fire TV devices.  While you could argue Google’s YouTube pull is a savvy hardball way to get tough with Amazon, the real loser of this battle is the consumer.  You can imagine the reaction an excited new Fire TV user would have when they find out that they can’t access YouTube with their new device?  This tech tug-of-war reminds me of the “us vs. them” battle between Apple and Microsoft.  For years the tech industry suffered because consumers were divided into two camps.  Hopefully that mistake doesn’t repeat itself with this next generation of digital heavyweights.

THE DAMPENING EFFECT OF “PODCAST CACHING”:  Yesterday Triton called out four audio publishers (iHeart, Stitcher, Spotify, and Google) for the practice of podcast caching, as noted in the attached RAIN link.  In simple terms caching is when a publisher saves a copy of the podcast and then distributes it via download instead of streaming it the way normal digital audio is sent out.  This practice creates two problems for the industry.  First, a cached and then downloaded podcast loses its tracking analytics.  Because once listeners download a podcast to their own device you can’t tell how often or long they listen to the content, much less determine if the ads within the podcast were heard. The second problem is that you can’t dynamically insert ads in real time into cached/downloaded podcasts.  The chart below shows the breakout of integrated ads (which are usually “brought to you by” sponsorship mentions), compared to dynamically inserted ads which you typically hear within streamed content.  Triton’s beef is that caching is inhibiting the revenue growth of podcasting as a whole, because many more clients would invest if more ads were served dynamically and you could track the usage metrics.  It feels like Triton is making a good argument here.  If we want to get serious about podcasting as a viable ad offering the industry needs to drop caching and commit to streaming.

SO JUST HOW BIG IS THE INTERNET?:  When thinking about the digital landscape we typically deal in US-only metrics and are usually focused on mobile usage instead of just the worldwide web, literally the “www”, as a whole.  So for perspective it’s sometimes good to step back and look at the total online usage numbers just to gage the internet’s impact on humanity.  According to eMarketer in the attached link, during 2017 about 3.46B humans will log on globally at least once a month.  For context there are about 7.7B of us in total, so that’s a 47% penetration rate.  As you can see in the graphic below 2019 is expected to be a seminal year for the internet, when over half the total global population will go online monthly.  Since some corners of the globe don’t even have regular access to electricity the internet will never reach everyone.  But pretty soon the majority of us will be members of the digital generation.

Have a great Thursday guys!

LOCAL FORECAST 2018 – MOBILE TO OUT BILL RADIO:  Radio’s last bastion of revenue performance has been Local media.  Think of the local car dealer or restaurant owner being called on by a neighborhood radio rep – those kinds of 1-1 relationships have sustained Radio during a period of overall decline for traditional media.  But now Radio’s share of local media dollars is also starting to erode, and according to BIA Kelsey in attached Radio Ink link, will be surpassed by Mobile in Local US ad spending during 2018.  Keep in mind we’re not talking about overall spending which includes national clients.  This is just for local advertisers who make up radio broadcasters’ bread and butter client rosters.  Even these guys now understand the power of mobile advertising and have solved for getting their ads on the connected devices we’re all using more and more.  With this trend is it any wonder Radio is pushing so hard to get “FM Chip” technology enabled in all smartphones?

LABELS RIDING THE STREAMING GRAVY TRAIN:  Yesterday Warner Music Group (WMG) announced its Q4 and full year 2017 revenue performance, for its fiscal year ending on 9/30, as reported in the attached Musically link.  It was a pretty rosy picture, with overall rev growing +10% YoY.  The primary growth driver was streaming royalties which increased 24% to $1.7B annually.  Streaming now comprises over half of WMG’s global recorded revenue (56% to be exact), which is the first time a major label has crossed the 50% mark for a full year.  I would expect Sony and Universal to tell similar stories when their full year financials come out in Q1.  These stats are further proof that streaming isn’t just important to the music industry, it IS the entire future of the biz.  It’s also worth noting that the labels are now clearly rolling in the green thanks to streaming, while the streamers themselves have yet to make a sustainable profit because of the same high royalty payments.  Makes you wonder if a recalibration is in order for the entire music royalty system.

GM RISING TO THE TaaS CHALLENGE (guest column):  On Friday I featured a doomsday-ish op-ed article from former GM product chief Bob Lutz, who predicted the end of the Auto Industry as we know it within the next 15-20 years.  In response to the article I received several questions about what the EOMs are doing to meet this transformational challenge.  The best insight was sent by Pandora Key Account Director Michael Follis.  His research and commentary is so spot on that it makes for the perfect guest column.  It’s a great read, so enjoy it in Mr. Follis’s own words . . .

“I thought you might find the below information regarding GM’s vision to ‘Redefine the Future of Personal Mobility’ interesting.  I always enjoy seeing presentations built by our big clients presented by their senior leadership, and came across this presentation, which GM CEO Mary Barra recently presented to a Barclay’s investor conference.  In summary, it describes GM’s vision of how they will disrupt themselves from their current core business of traditional personal vehicle ownership to the future of personal mobility, driven by electric, autonomous, shared vehicles.  On slide 20 Ms. Barra refers to this as the ‘Biggest business opportunity since the creation of the internet.’  What I love about GM’s strategy is that they are thinking big, and state that they’re ‘delivering on what we say we are going to do.’   Over the past week GM made two announcements which demonstrate how they’re going all in on their strategy per the above.  1) GM Marketplace Launch:  GM is putting stake in the ground in the in-car marketplace (similar to Amazon vs. Google at home…GM is establishing the first in-car eCommerce) – you can order Starbucks from your dash board!  And 2) GM Will Make Money on Autonomous and Win: GM announced last Friday its plan to launch a fleet of fully autonomous vehicles in 2019…coming after Uber.  Now what if you combine Marketplace + Autonomous?  Your car picks you up with Starbucks already in it!”

Have a great Wednesday guys!

2018 FORECAST . . . INSIDE THE NUMBERS:  You know it must be December when you start seeing a steady stream of media spending forecasts about the upcoming year.  Over the last 48 hours agency power players Group M and Zenith, along with the research firm Magna, have released their 2018 forecasts.  AdExchanger has a strong roundup of the three reports as summarized in the attached link.  The good news is that global media revenue is expected to rise 3-5% in 2018.  But that bad news (unless you’re a member of the duopoly), is that almost all of that growth will be harvested by Google and Facebook.  Amazon is starting to become more of a factor, but growth from their current revenue base in the $1-2B range won’t be enough to move the market in 2018.  Other trends being called out in the 2018 forecast include an increased push for cost efficiencies and attribution performance thanks to softness is major spending categories like CPG, Retail, Auto and Telco.  Programmatic will also continue to drive growth, but more money will be spent through publisher direct PMPs instead of open exchanges.  The article is a great look ahead as we race towards 2018, so spend some time with it.

CALLING DOCTOR CVS:  Late Sunday night CVS and Aetna mutually announced plans for CVS to buyout the insurer, as noted in the attached NYT article.  If this deal comes to fruition it could have massive ramifications on the entire US Healthcare industry.  At a very basic level the merger makes sense for the prescription drug side of the biz.  With 10,000+ pharmacy locations CVS can help Aetna (whose insurance subsidizes the cost of prescriptions), save money with distribution efficiencies.  But there’s also a far bigger potential play in the works here.  Think about the potential for CVS’s MinuteClinics to expand the scope of healthcare services it provides into full urgent care facilities.  And then envision patients covered by Aetna being offered a discount on premiums/deductibles for using a CVS instead of a hospital ER or standalone urgent care facility.  For certain ailments this model would provide significant savings – enough to reward CVS/Aetna and still incentivize the patient.  What will this mean for traditional doctors and hospitals?  And can we expect to see more pharmacy/healthcare insurer tie-ups over the next several months?  It seems like there’s an equal amount unknowns and opportunities here.

GET UP, KEEP RUNNING:  Finally today, I’d like to leave you with an amazingly inspirational video from the 2008 Big 10 Track & Field Championship.  The video you’re about to see is from the Women’s 600 meter race.  Watch carefully at the 1-minute, and then get ready to see what happens next.  Spoiler alert – the fallen runner, a women named Heather Dorniden, got back up and eventually won the race with an epic effort.  How did she do it?  The key moment was at the 61 second mark when she got back up and kept running like nothing had even happened.  How many of us would have laid on the ground in shocked disbelief?  How many of us would have limped along the track one last time to at least finish but with no chance of winning?  And how few of us would overcome diversity in real time and just keep going?  My guess is there are very few Heather Dorniden’s out there . . . but can you imagine what the world would be like if there were more?!?

Have a great Tuesday guys!

SPOTIFY-TENCENT STAKE SWAP?:  Late last week rumors began to circulate about a possible pre-IPO agreement between Spotify and Asian tech giant Tencent to swap a stake in one another, as reported in the attached RAIN link.  The move is a non-cash way to diversify each publishers’ assets, and could create a path for future strategic partnerships in the Asian streaming market.  The best way to do this kind of transaction is pre-IPO.  Spotify has been stalling on an IPO for most of 2017 – so do they go public after the swap?  And there’s been speculation that Tencent will spin off its music division into a separate entity, which it will take public in the next few months.  So the timing of a stake swap could work out well for both companies.  More to come on this one, I’m sure.

iHEART’S DEBT RESTRUCUTURING GETS CONENTIOUS:  Last week Cumulus chose Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as the path to address its debt and (hopefully) survive as a company.  Now it’s iHeart’s turn to come to terms with its own 21 billion pound debt gorilla.  The attached Radio Ink link describes the negotiation happening between iHeart and its creditors.  The basic arrangement is for iHeart to give up more stake in itself in return for new debt they can use to pay off old debt. (Sounds healthy, right?)  The only question is how much equity will they give up for what size line of credit?  iHeart is offering a total of 87.5% of the company in return for $7B in new debt.  But the creditors want 95.3% of iHeart in return of $5.75M in new debt.  Keep in mind neither option actually pays down the debt – it’s just a way of iHeart buying time by mortgaging off ownership of itself.  To me this feels like a pretty sad way to kick the financial can down the road.

A LITTLE “FUTURE OF DIGITAL” LEVITY:  I know today’s DG is little bit of a financial grind.  To lighten things up I’d like to leave you with a spot on cartoon which appeared in today’s AdExchanger.  It pretty much sums up where digital media is headed.  Numbered are the days of just selling bulk impressions of whatever ad unit at a set CPM.  Now it’s all about data, which will be purchased by clients via self-serve API portals, unless you’re a mega-spender who’ll receive the equivalent of white-gloved VIP entry into the data garden.  This view on the future of digital media is absolutely going to happen.  The only question is which brands, publishers, agencies and marketing professionals will be ready for it.

Have a great Monday guys!

CYBER MONDAY’S FINAL TALLY:  We’re starting to see some final sales numbers from Cyber Monday and the entire five-day Thanksgiving shopping window.  Based on the numbers in the attached Chain Storage link, the results were impressive to say the least.  Cyber Monday sales totaled $6.6B this year, which was +17% over last year’s $5.6M.  Over the five days from Turkey Day through Cyber Monday online sales in the US totaled a whopping $20B.  And mobile was the star of the show, driving 31% of the total sales – with 22% coming from smartphones and 9% coming from tablets.  Perhaps the most mind-blowing stat of all is Adobe’s prediction that this year total holiday season eCommerce sales (Nov-Dec) will top $100B for the first time ever.  With all this online ordering Santa might not even need a sleigh in a few years!

AND THEN THERE’S “SINGLE’S DAY”:  Before you get too amazed by the US Cyber Monday sales totals, try this one on for size.  According to The Verge in the attached link Alibaba (by itself) sold $25.3B in merchandise within China on Single’s Day, which is celebrated on November 11^th.  Think about that stat for a minute – that’s 20% more than the entire US eCommerce total over the five day Thanksgiving window, and we’re just talking about sales from one company on one day!  Obviously there are several times as many consumers in China compared to the US, but it’s still a shocking number.  Alibaba’s 2017 total, which was +40% vs. 2016, was driven by some wacky one-time offers like a lifetime supply of baiju liquor for $1,672 USD, but only for single people (get it?)  I actually think the married folks might need the booze more, but I’m just a sample size of one.  Regardless of the tongue-and-cheek offers Single’s Day’s sales results demonstrate just how much further eCommerce can grow in the US and around the world.

WEEKEND MUST READ – THE AUTO APOCALYPSE:  Finally this week I want to leave you with a homework assignment.  When you have a few quite minutes this weekend read the attached op-ed piece from GM’s former Head of Product Development Bob Lutz, which first appeared in Auto News on November 5^th.  This article sparked a firestorm of comments throughout the auto industry because of the audacious predictions Mr. Lutz makes.  Without stealing too much of his thunder, consider a day within the next 15-20 years when it will be illegal for humans to drive because autonomous driving cars are so much safer than we are.  Or how about the extinction of auto dealers as we know them, with comparisons to the last horse dealers 100 years ago.  It doesn’t matter if you work in the auto industry or not, this one affects everyone.  Almost all of us use a car to get from point A to point B, and the auto industry is the largest product sector in our economy.  So any change of this scale will have life-altering consequences for everyone.  Granted there’s no guarantee Mr. Lutz’s predictions will come true on the timeline he suggests.  Since this article’s publication there’s been a raging debate around all sides of the future of transportation.  Give it a read and let me know what you think.

Have a great Friday (and weekend) guys!