Thursday’s Themes . . .

IMMERSIVE MARKETING 101:  Our first article appeared in AdWeek yesterday.  The first two points, about Native Integration and the Power of Audio as an ad unit, could have come directly out of a Pandora pitch.  This all contributes to a body of work becoming known as “immersive marketing”, where the marketer weaves their message into content the consumer is already interacting with.  Compare that experience to the forced mugging of interstitial ads, circa 2007, and you have the entire evolution of digital marketing in one microcosm.  Fortunately for Pandora we’re already “where the puck is going” on this one.  Very cool to be on the forefront here.  http://www.adweek.com/brandshare/why-future-digital-about-aligning-experiences-173120#!/

THE POWER OF PODCASTING:  The next pair of articles create a nice 1-2 punch for the popularity and efficacy of podcasting.  Edison’s Larry Rosen is quoted in both pieces with some strong recall and favorability stats from their latest podcasting study.  Given that the study was co-authored with the IAB (Interactive Ad Bureau), you can be confident that these numbers are legit.  I would also argue that these stats could apply to other streamed content sponsorships, like say Questlove Supreme, since the client messaging is woven in the same way as the podcasts.  Good ammo if you’re out there selling TAL or QLS extensions right now.  (1) http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/284176/podcast-sponsors-find-engaged-audiences.html    (2)  http://adage.com/article/media/study-advertisers-increasingly-interested-podcasting/305738/?utm_source=digital_email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=adage&ttl=1473870509

MORE TWEAKS AND MORE SUBS FOR APPLE MUSIC:  And finally, yesterday Apple held a news conference to announce the new iPhone7 and iOS10 operating system.  Within the launch news Tim Cook unveiled Apple Music’s new “more sleek” interface.  One interesting Apple Music stat for us is that they now claim 17M worldwide subscribers since Apple Music’s official relaunch last September.  You may remember Apple said they added 10M at the six month mark, so the new sub velocity is slowing some.  Granted 17M is still an impressive one year total.  What’s interesting is that this growth is happening while Spotify is growing their subs and while Pandora’s free service is at an all-time high AAS (Average Active Sessions).  So streaming is not a zero-sum game – meaning Apple’s growth isn’t coming from one of the other pureplays.  More than likely their deriving audience from the continued migration of AM/FM listening over to all-things streaming.  One other quick item of note is the # of Apple Music’s exclusive releases Tim Cook mentioned.  This has obviously been their bread and butter strategy to drive new subs.  Wondering how that will change once more labels stop doing exclusives.  http://rainnews.com/apple-music-has-17-million-subscribers/

Have a great Thursday guys!

Good morning team . . .

A CHEAPER APPLE:  First up today is Apple’s move to discount it’s streaming service (Apple Music), with the offer of $99 for a one year subscription.  That price comes out to $8.25/mo, which is 15% lower than the $10/mo standard.  Initially this offer will be available only in Apple retail stores, on eBay, and on Walmart.com.  My guess is this will stay as a limited promotional offer, since widespread distribution could cannibalize the current $10/mo Apple subs and effectively cheapen down their entire offering.  It’s yet to be seen if consumers are willing to shell out $99 up front for the year – fewer than 1 in 5 are willing to pay even $10/mo, so does paying the whole enchilada at once scare folks off?  Worth keeping an eye on.  https://9to5mac.com/2016/09/05/apple-music-discounted-membership/

INSIDE THE MIND OF A HOLDING COMPANY:  Yesterday AdExchanger published an extensive interview with Jerry Buhlmann, the CEO of Dentsu-Aegis.  The main thrust of the article was D-A’s attempt to create a data ecosystem through the recent acquisitions of data specialist Merkle and the programmatic shop Accordant Media.  One interesting question/comment was on how Carat, D-A’s largest traditional agency, still fits into this new vision.  The other sensitive topic was the trend of top clients to in-house programmatic, and effectively squeeze their agencies out.  To that question Mr. Buhlmann responded “Programmatic is a specialist skill. Once a client brings it in-house, they have to invest in that business and keep it competitive. After a while, the quality and differentiator will decay and they’ll be back to outsourcing.”  Obviously this response is agency-biased, but it’s insightful to see how they’re interpreting this industry trend.  It’s sort of a long piece, but worth spending the time on.  http://adexchanger.com/agencies/dentsu-aegis-ceo-jerry-buhlmann-eventually-everything-will-become-programmatic/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWkRFeU1HTTNZakE0WkdNNSIsInQiOiJwWUtBdzBXZ3l4MUpIanBveWI2YmhuRWVYR0ErdjJzTTR2aU1CVnlSWFBINFN2THl1dUJwenhNaCtvYjRjMlFIcW9wQkJsR1FkQmE5WUZ0UExqK09cLzJ2ejMxNVkrS2FxOE9KZjNnS05Qa2M9In0%3D

PODCAST GROUND RULES:  And finally, yesterday the IAB released its first set of non-binding industry guidelines for podcast measurement.  This is a nod to the growing presence of podcasting on the media landscape.  But to give you an idea how fast this sector is moving, the IAB’s guidelines are mostly centered around downloaded podcast.  The real cutting edge of podcasting has already moved from downloads to streaming delivery options, like Pandora.  All in, it’s still a positive to have the IAB begin to formalize standards around podcasting.  We’re just a few steps further ahead on this one!  http://adage.com/article/media/iab-tech-lab-releases-guidelines-podcast-advertising/305723

Have a great Wednesday guys!

 

A Welcome Back Tuesday!

IT’S AN APP WORLD, AND WE’RE JUST LIVING IN IT:  First up today is a validation of the notion that we’re officially living in an In-App world.  According to comScore, in July 59% of total time spent on a digital device was done via an App.  The breakdown of this stat is 50% on a smartphone and 9% on a tablet.  By comparison, only 9% of time was spent on Mobile Web (7% on smartphone and 2% on tablet respectively).  As we know by now, ad monetization always follows time spent on a platform.  So you can count on In-App advertising (not just plain mobile) to follow this surge over the next year or two.  http://rainnews.com/the-u-s-spends-half-its-digital-time-in-smartphone-apps/

In Ap Time

AD FRAUD DILEMMA:  Over the past few years Ad Fraud has emerged as a significant barrier in digital advertising.  The following eMarketer article outlines the depth of the issue, with estimates of fraudulent programmatic ads running as high as 20-30% of total video and display ad delivery.  And what’s more disconcerting is that, despite agency and client attempts to raise the bar on its inventory providers, ad fraud remains as high as ever.  So what can an advertiser do to avoid impression consuming bots and malvertising virus?  Buy from direct publishers, of course!    The overwhelming majority of fraud comes from ad networks, and not site-sold publishers.  And for the cleanest of the clean publishers, look for ones with registered users – who have actual humans behind each account.  I know this sounds really basic, but clients who still insist on buying impressions at $1-2 CPMs on open exchanges should not be surprised when they get what they pay for.  http://totalaccess.emarketer.com/View/Article/Ad-Industrys-Focus-on-Fraud-Has-Intensified/1014430

FLAT IS THE NEW UP?:  If you call on a car dealership you’ve been hearing of the upcoming “unit plateauing” for months now.  That is, after seven consecutive years of YoY unit growth in the US Auto Industry, the dealers will have reached max sales capacity.  Based on the August industry #s, with all the major OEMs either flat or down, it might be occuring.  This stat comes with a few important caveats though.  First, one month’s sales data does not make a trend.  And second, even at the current sales levels the US Auto Industry is poised to sell an all-time record 17 million cars this year.  So while some could look at flattish unit sales as a glass half empty scenario, ther are 17 million reasons to think of 2016 as a glass half full sales year!  http://www.insideradio.com/free/august-brought-softer-auto-sales/article_b1522be0-7402-11e6-b8c6-cbaac67238a1.html

DIGITAL TRENDS:  And finally, I always enjoy these AdWeek Digital Trend summaries.  Points 3 and 4 speak directly to the Ad Fraud topic I addressed above.  http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/6-digital-marketing-stats-caught-our-eye-week-173273

 

Have a great Tuesday guys!

Happy Labor Day Weekend eve . . .

MORE BANK FOR THE LABELS:  As a follow up to yesterday’s article on label revenue from on-demand stream licensing, I thought it would be helpful to include the ad-supported side of the house. The attached article and graph show the labels’ worldwide streaming rev for both sides over the last several years. The dark blue ad-supported lines are basically all Pandora’s US-based compulsory licensing payments to Sound Exchange. As the article notes, the continued growth of on-demand streaming makes a good case for Pandora to move into this space.  http://rainnews.com/infographic-depicts-subscription-versus-ad-supported-revenue/

 

Stream Royalites

 

THE BEACONS ARE COMING:  In the next article eMarketer delves into the emerging trend of in-store beacons. For those not in the know, beacons are devices retailers can place in store to track and/or communicate with customers’ mobile devices via Bluetooth or NFC (near field communication). In its simplest usage retailers can figure out who’s in their stores – think about the kind of attribution research you could do with this information. On a more advanced level consider a CPG brand delivering an ad to your phone as you stand in front of a shelf of products (because the beacon knows you’re standing there). A little creepy perhaps. But talk about a way to get your product noticed over the other guys . We’re still way early in the beaconing game, but it’s good to become versed in this new technology. https://www.emarketer.com/Article/More-Marketers-Use-Proximity-Tech-Beacons-Closer-Action/1014428?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWXpBeVpUa3dPRGczTkRJNCIsInQiOiJaXC93bVU1N2FUOXo3SWV2MlhLWEZ6TGxYeDM4cUNIMDNcLzdVNEpsY2FxdUNqaWNxWVc1bWJEamIzbDRrYXgzdEtTd29lZEtXK0xjbzBvT1F2UzlcL2R5czladGlcL3hldmNhXC9SXC9jKzNiRHNxbz0ifQ%3D%3D

 

NEW TITLE NEEDED?:  So the next headline looks positive, right?  Radio reaping growth from more overall spending on Audio.  But when you look inside the numbers (and chart below), you actually see a negative trend.  Radio’s overall revenue has been flattish since 2010, and down over the last two years.  Even more pronounced is the gap in growth between radio and overall media spending.  The net result for broadcasters is a smaller and smaller slice of the ad pie every year.  Keep in mind, these stats don’t include pureplays like Pandora.  If those numbers were factored in overall Audio spending would be growing faster than the industry average – which should have been the correct headline to this article all along.  http://www.insideradio.com/radio-reaps-growth-from-expanding-audio-pie/article_bd72549e-701b-11e6-9002-f754a5c18dc0.html

Ad-Radio Spending

 

Have a great loooong holiday weekend guys!

Good morning team . . .

EVERYTHING BUT THE KITCHEN SINK:    If you’re pitching Sponsored Listening this article is for you!  Heidi Browning does a masterful job of articulating the inherent strengths of our SL offering, and ties in efficacy with our usage metrics across 208 studied campaigns. Heidi also manages to weave in plugs for muted video, lat-long, VAE, addressability, and in-app product innovations.  And then she tops it all off with case study shout outs for Kellogg’s. LVCVB, and Taco Bell!  So much good stuff, but you may need a nap after reading this one.  J http://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/283672/advertisers-take-a-page-or-a-listen-from-pandor.html

LABELS MAKING BANK:  Another day, another batch of data on the growing prominence streaming occupies within the labels’ revenue picture.  The attached RAIN article on the big three labels’ 1H revenue growth is for label-direct royalties only, so Pandora isn’t factored in here.  Regardless, it’s amazing to see the overall growth – especially with Spotify’s payments.  This matches yesterday’s Motley Fool insights, about rising content costs making a Spotify IPO look less likely.  Expect more reports like this over the coming quarters and years. http://rainnews.com/mark-mulligan-just-how-well-is-streaming-really-doing/

TOTAL AUDIENCE . . . REALLY?:  And finally, Nielsen is out with PR hit piece touting the different media types’ shares of the “Total Audience”.  Conveniently, Nielsen left out Digital Audio from this infographic, although they did manage to include Digital Video.  Maybe they left Digital Audio out because they still don’t measure it?!?  The other misleading element here that they only report broadcast TV and Radio by total reach – both numbers still look impressive.  But Nielsen carefully avoids adding Time Spent to their calculation, which is the real erosion problem for the broadcasters.  #smoke&mirrors  http://rainnews.com/nielsen-infographic-shows-radios-steady-audience-share-minus-streaming/

Nielsen Total Audience

Have a great Thursday guys!

 

Good morning team . . .

SPOTIFY’S FINANCIAL CATCH 22:  In recent weeks I’ve touched on the relationship between Spotify’s label deals and their ability (or inability) to go public.  The following Motley Fool article absolutely nails their dilemma from the viewpoint of potential IPO investors.  At the heart of the problem is the inconvenient fact that Spotify’s core operations are not profitable.  Meaning that during every hour of listening they pay more in royalties and operational costs than they take in subscription and ad revenues.  So to keep the lights on they’ve gone through a series of fund-raising rounds via VC investors, which has raised their “paper valuation” to an unrealistic $8B.  So an IPO will become the day of reckoning, as Wall Street investors will decide for themselves the true value of Spotify as a company.  This is about to get interesting.  http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/08/30/spotify-ipo-prospects-continue-to-worsen.aspx?source=yahoo-2&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=yahoo-2&yptr=yahoo

THE POWER OF AUDIO:  Enough about the other guys already, let’s talk about the Mighty P!  The Drum has an equally in depth piece on our current ad model, and the prospects for monetization as we balance ad growth with eventual on-demand functionality.  This article covers a ton – so spend some time with it.  Lizzie Widhelm and Heidi Browning do a nice job articulating our inherent strengths as a mobile audio platform.  Great snippets to use in your next sales call!  http://www.thedrum.com/news/2016/08/30/pandora-poised-renaissance-audio

GROCERY GROWTH:  And finally in industry news, I think the following Business Insider article on Walmart’s success with their Neighborhood Market concept is interesting.  The idea that grocery is a more “Amazon proof” segment for retailers is insightful, as consumers still like to hand pick their produce and meats.  Over the past decade mass merch retailers, like Target and even WM themselves, have placed big bets on grocery within their mega stores.  The results have been choppy.  Maybe the success of stand-alones like Neighborhood Market will spur more competitors to go down this road.  Who knew grocery would become such a hot button category?!?  http://www.businessinsider.com/walmarts-neighborhood-market-is-crushing-the-competition-2016-8?amp

Have a great Wednesday guys!