CONCERN RISING OVER SPOTIFY’S IPO: For months I’ve been writing about Spotify’s planned “direct listing” IPO, which is expected to happen around March. Besides the weirdness of a direct listing, which raises no new capital for the company, there are mounting questions about what the company’s stock will actually trade at once equity holders are allowed to start selling their shares. Since institutional investors won’t have a chance to pre-price the stock through the usual IPO process the stock price could jump all over the place, taking equity holders and even music labels on a wild ride. The attached Hypebot article breaks down the various contingencies’ financial arrangements with Spotify. Fair warning, it reads like a bowl of spaghetti. The consensus word being used to describe the situation is “frightening”, which is never the adjective you want to hear heading into an IPO. In the words of sector analyst and Hypebot contributor Chris Castle, “There are some companies that just aren’t supposed to be public, and I think Spotify is one.” That might be the most straightforward thing being said about Spotify’s eminent IPO right now.
WHICH VERSION OF TV’S FUTURE DO YOU BELIEVE?: I know I’m a few days late on this, but a couple of interesting things happened in TV land on Monday which are worth dissecting. First came a series of predictions about the future of traditional and digital TV from executives at NBC and CBS. The comments were made during a series of fireside chats/panels at an AdExchanger Industry Preview – a summary can be found in the attached link. The boldest predictions were that subscription OTT services like Netflix couldn’t sustain their growth and will eventually need to offer a free/lower cost ad supported tier, and that the TV Upfronts will shift from buying shows to buying data. All of this seemed pretty convincing until 5:00p est rolled around. That’s when Netflix exploded a Q4 earnings bomb that blew away The Street’s expectations, as noted in the attached CNBC link. The biggest coup for Netflix was the announcement of 8.3M new subscribers in Q4 alone, which is an all-time high for a three month period and 2M more than was forecasted. So whose “future of TV” predictions should we believe? The traditional networks who are peddling a coexistence narrative as they cling to their legacy business, or Netflix who keeps putting points on the scoreboard?
BK PULLS A WHOPPER ON NET NEUTRALITY: I’ve gotta hand it to Burger King and their creative agency DAVID Miami for their latest PR stunt. In a parody of the FCC’s Net Neutrality repeal, Burger King set up a fictional cash register scene where they told unsuspecting customers their Whopper would take longer to make since they paid for the “Slow MBPS” option. In their stunt MBPS stands for Making Burgers Per Second, which could be sped up or slowed down depending on how much a customer is willing to pay for a Whopper. If you think this sounds funny check out the video mid-way through the attached AdWeek link – you’ll be laughing all day. Besides the clip’s sheer comedic genius, there’s an important lesson in seeing the moment consumers make the connection between the Whopper MBPS delivery system and what’s actually about to occur with internet data delivery in the US. It’s simply brilliant. I just hope FCC Chair Ajit Pai isn’t a big BK fan, because he’s officially persona non grata with the King these day!
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